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The rainy season is coming to an end. Forecast for the end of the rainy season

Reading volume:25 Release time:2025-10-15 12:39:42

The end of the plum rain season, also known as "the end of the plum rain", marks the end date of the plum rain weather in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in early summer. During the plum rain period, if the plum rain front system and the main rain belt significantly move out of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the number of rainy days in this area within five days is less than two, with the highest temperature at all stations in the area significantly rising above 30℃, and the ground southerly wind speed also significantly increasing, it is defined as the end of the plum rain period. The current Chinese almanac adopts the theory from the "Shenshu Jing" that after Minor Heat, there is a day of Wei, which falls between July 8th and 19th, marking the end of the plum Rain season. In some years, the end of the plum rain season is delayed. For instance, in 1954, the plum rain season did not end until August 2nd, and the rainy season lasted for 63 days.

The start and end of the rainy season as determined by meteorology are different from those recorded in almanacs. The demarcation of the beginning and end of the plum rain season and the plum rain period in meteorology is based on the background of the weather circulation pattern of the large network. It is determined by conditions such as the geographical distribution characteristics of weather systems, the geographical distribution locations of precipitation, and changes in meteorological elements. Due to the fact that the evolution of the circulation pattern varies from year to year, there are complex differences in meteorology regarding people, the date of the end of the plum rain season, and the plum rain period. When the plum rain front area and its rain belt reach or form in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River or the Jianghuai region, it is called the beginning of plum rain. The period when rain belts stop or linger is called the plum rain period. When the rain belt moves northward and reaches the Yellow River Basin relatively stably, and the Jianghuai region comes under the control of the Western Pacific subtropical high pressure, the plum rain in the Jianghuai region will come to an end. That is to say, the rainy season is over.

The abnormal plum rain is the main cause of drought and flood disasters in the Jianghuai region. The time of the beginning and end of the plum rain season, the length of the plum rain period and the amount of plum rain are important characteristic quantities of the plum rain, among which the determination of the time of the beginning and end of the plum rain season is the key.

There are differences of opinion on the division of the time after the end of the rainy season

Zhou Zengkui put forward the argument that "when dividing and determining the start and end of the rainy season, the seasonal adjustment of the atmospheric circulation should be the main consideration." However, Lin Biyuan did not agree with Luo Zhaozhang's opinion that the start and end of the rainy season should be divided based on the standards of climatology. He believed that "the determination of the start and end of the rainy season should not be mainly based on the adjustment of the atmospheric circulation in early summer." Starting from the definition of the plum rain season, Dong Xiaomin proposed that the division of the beginning and end of the plum rain season "should not only pay attention to the seasonal variation characteristics of atmospheric circulation, but also consider the large-scale precipitation phenomena and characteristic conditions such as temperature and humidity that accompany it" to determine the plum rain season.

A new "broad classification standard for the onset and end of the plum rain season" was proposed for the Yangtze River and Huai River basins, and based on this standard, the climatic characteristics of precipitation throughout the plum rain period in the Yangtze River and Huai River basins were studied.

The standard period for the plum rain season is between June and July. On the 500mb map of the Northern Hemisphere, it is between 125 and 140. The position of the Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure ridge line of E: In the southern part of Zhejiang Province, it is between 23 and 24. N, in the northern part of Zhejiang, is between 24 and 25. C, and it has remained stable for five consecutive days or more. After the continuous rainy days, the following conditions will occur: in southern Zhejiang, there will be no rain for seven days or more, and in northern Zhejiang, there will be no rain for five days or more (excluding precipitation caused by tropical systems and local hot thunderstorms in the south). The daily average temperature has been steadily above 25. C or 25. C or above. The time curves of the daily average temperature and air pressure at a single station show a synchronous upward phenomenon. If the subtropical ridge line has already jumped northward to 25. If N remains stable for two consecutive days and there is still continuous overcast and rainy weather of 0.1 millimeters or more during this period, then select the day with a daily rainfall of 1.0 millimeters or more. After the rainy season ends, 120 to 130. The subtropical high-pressure ridge line between E has jumped northward to 26. N or north of it, and the daily average temperature is ≥27. C, higher temperature 330. C, and there has been no rain for more than six consecutive days. The average end date of the plum rain season over the years is July 9th. When the subtropical high-pressure ridge line jumps northward to 26. The last provincial-level precipitation process north of N, which remains stable for more than three days and is controlled by the outer line of the subtropical high pressure (588dagpm) over Hankou for more than two days, has ended and is defined as the end of the plum Rain season.

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